Grand National Preview

I backed Giles Cross, not with very much money, at 33/1 a few weeks ago and so should now be quite excited that he is quoted at 12/1 third favourite.

If the promised rain fell on Liverpool in sufficient quantities then this would be one of my most confident selections in a career as Grand National tipster that goes back to the early 80's and, until recently, had an approximately 1 in 3 strike rate, with two horses most years and a couple of forecast bets landed in the process.

But we checked the weather forecast for Liverpool this morning and there isn't much more rain in it. And so it is literally, hold your horses. A downpour might make him 7/1 favourite and the best bet of the season but drying conditions would surely see him drift back out in price.

I stand to benefit if Calgary Bay gets round in front of the others. A fine, big horse who impressed last time out, but he is on the drift in the market and there seems to be a doubt about the four and a half mile trip.

The statistics don't encourage investment on 13 year olds but Black Apalachi is my idea of the perfect National horse and having been injured just before last year's race, he comes here with relatively few miles on the clock, apparently as forgotten as Mon Mome and Silver Birch were in their years but kept in training with this race specifically in mind.

I don't suppose you can get a price on the publicity stunt race disruption which made the best boat race for years a non-event last week. I appreciate the swimmer's point that the Boat Race is cruelty to dumb animals but they did somehow get into Oxford and Cambridge Universities. Yes, I dare say the fundamentalist might consider banning the use of animals for the horse jamboree but hunting, shooting and fishing would come ahead of it and, as a vegetarian, I'm smug enough in my belief that over a year, fewer animals die to satisfy my appetites than do for many others.