Nicky Henderson has been robbed of his big Champion Hurdle hope and the Good Lord only knows what Constitution Hill will produce but the stable has quality if not the in-depth quantity to still be optimistic about these four days of crucible, red hot racing.
Of course, we don't want to dismiss Ireland's chances because it's become almost a home fixture for them but Mr. Henderson might be 2-0 up after the Supreme and the Arkle on Tuesday. Old Park Star (nap) and Lulamba have looked impressive against UK opposition so far. Joseph O'Brien's Talk the Talk in the Supreme might be doing exactly that but only squeaked in at Leopardstown on heavy ground. There's more to worry about in the Arkle where Kopek des Bordes presumably won like a 2/9 should last time out and Romeo Coolio only beat Kargese a neck and I'm not 100% convinced about Kargese, having once backed her and lost. The reasons why I'm not taking ante-post prices about this opening double is that it's still five weeks away, ante-post markets are strewn with disappointed chancers and Lulamba, despite being overwhelmingly on top by the end of his races, has taken the first half of them to find his feet, which might be a plus up the Prestbury Park finish but there's just half a chance he's not flawless over the bare two miles. Nevertheless, it looks like we go in all big and brash. The week could be all but over by 2.10pm on the Tuesday but that's sport for you. I know several people who pay good money to go and watch Portsmouth play football. They'd understand about disappointment and, hey, Jude, the patron saint of lost causes. The plan for the rest of the week entirely depends on how those first two races go. Some years ago, one of our local 'faces' went for the whole four days and backed 24 consecutive losers. I can't see the enjoyment in that. I was told, yes but you back the favourites, don't you. Quite often, yes, I do, but that's not cheating.
Jeriko du Reponet will be given the widest of berths in the handicap because it's not a natural jumper of fences and you need to be at least that to win a big Cheltenham handicap.
The Champion Hurdle market has had to be carved up and re-written several times already so I'm not committing to that yet, if at all. I was all over The New Lion before the two runs he's had this season; the race turned out to be Lossiemouth's for the taking last year had she been put in it; I'd be angling towards Betterdaysahead at present but not with money; I'd bloody luv it if Mr. Henderson could find the old Constitution Hill but that's a challenge that might be even beyond him. Golden Ace might yet pick up another top race and become a legend almost by default. It's a complete guessing game and a bookie's benefit.
On Wednesday, if body and soul are still intact, one might think that Majborough ought to be odds on to be Champion Chaser after Leopardstown but Marine Nationale wins at Cheltenham, so far. I'd be siding with Majborough because he's three years younger with maybe more ahead of him. There could be a bet in the first, the Novice Hurdle, and it might be Doctor Steinberg on a day where I'd have to ask for odds ungenerously about Ireland overall. I might come back here and edit this as a 'living document' ( !!! ) as things become clearer.
Thursday can almost be a rest day some years. At present the market that goes 10/11, 5/4, 7/4 for the Mares Hurdle means first of all guessing which of the ladies are sent to it rather than the Champion Hurdle. Except if they all chose the perceived 'easier option' it could make it the harder one. You'd need to be a wiser guy than me to be on who runs never mind who wins.
I wish the Ryanair Chase could establish itself as a prize as much respected as the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup. Maybe it's at a disadvantage by being sponsored by an airline known for being cheap but not cheerful. There is no reason why middle distances should be less respected than shorter or longer. It's the other way round in flat racing. And in human racing the mile, or 1500m, is at least as much of a 'gold riband' as the 100m or marathon. They put £211k up for the Ryanair which ain't bad compared to £225k for the Champion and 351k for the Gold Cup, roughly in line with how much further you have to run and how many fences you have to jump. I can't be having anything at the prices at present, though.
The fact that 11yo Bob Olinger is 6/1, third fav, for the Stayers Hurdle says a lot about how bleak and starless things are in that division. And then you notice that Doddiethegreat is 10. These by all means classy races and would be riveting stuff at Sandown or Aintree but the argument against trying to fetch more cash out of the paying customer's pocket by making Cheltenham a five day meeting is that Thursday's already like it is. There are only so many good horses to go round.
Depending on which horses have taken their chance in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday, there will probably be a bet in the Mares Hurdle but until nearer the time I'd not be taking those prices on them running, never mind winning.
Whereas, if one has rested on the third day, Friday and the Gold Cup is worth having. If the race brings back memories of confident disasters such as Ten Plus, Silviniaco Conti or the ante post 5/2 I was stuck with when Burrough Hill Lad won, having been given away at much more than the SP of 7/2 as Mrs. Pitman insisted that there was nothing wrong with him, it might also remind one of some winners. But not as many as it should.
But Jango Baie is a bet, at 9/2, not going overboard but a go one could have. I'm a bit surprised it's favourite but in that blanket finish of 2025's race of the year in the King George, I reckon it was the one that wanted another furlong, or two and a half. That will be some sort of business on the day or else why do I still play this game. There was much to like about Haiti Couleurs keeping up the gallop at Newbury yesterday and at 8/1 isn't out of the question or even a reverse forecast. It's a long time since I did one of them.
There will probably be a bet in the Albert Bartlett, the long distance novice hurdle, and maybe if Doctor Steinberg and No Drama This End avoid each other, given that they are both entered in the first on Wednesday, it could work out alright to bet on both races.
That's not the most imaginative plan but the bookies' profits and the poor house are maintained by those who stride in all full of imaginative plans. I'd have landed the Coral place pot yesterday, and a few weeks ago, if I hadn't gone against a well-backed favourite. One wants to get by, not break the bank.
So it's Old Park Star. Then it's Majborough and Lulamba. And then you mix in the others mentioned in bold type here and if you're lucky, three of them might land a treble. Because you do need to be lucky as well as a wiseguy. Or not unlucky, at least.
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Why don't we have a little game here, if anybody wants to play. Send in your treble for the week, to be calculated as a Trixie- 3 doubles and the treble. I'll publish them here before it all gets underway. The prize could be something like a Thursday afternoon in The Dolphin, Old Portsmouth, date tba, but you'd have to get your round in.