Goodwood Preview

It's a different kind of week this week, desperately sad to miss Pavlos Carvalho in Chichester cathedral today but with some compensation in a rare day out at flat racing tomorrow.

Goodwood is flat racing's answer to Cheltenham, the main difference being you look down on the scenery rather than up at it. It's less easy to convince oneself of winners with any confidence, though, with the fine margins of short distance flat races, it being a fast, downhill track unlike most and, for the likes of me at least, it being flat racing, of which I'm no more of a student than I was of 'A' level History.

But, having landed the double at Warwick today with the very last scrapings in my account, the heroic rearguard action has got me into the autumn when I generally fancy myself to do some business and I'm suddenly the man in form.

Nearly 1m2f is a long way for 2 year olds in the 1.50 but Galactic Jack's run over 1m here last time had him 'staying on' dourly so he might last longest. Early indications that he'll be odds-on don't make him an attractive proposition but it does make you think he'll win.

One can't help but notice Substantial being chalked up as favourite, well ahead of his betting forecast status, in the 2.25. But it's not as if you can't make cases for a few others. One could do a mad thing for small change stakes and put him in a tri-cast with Red Mirage and Alazwar but this sort of closely handicapped race is a good example of why flat racing is a day out and not an exercise in applying some sort of science in the hope of showing a profit.

In that spirit, I won't even bother with any science in the 3.10 and support the outsider Batchelor Boy, by Cliff Richard out of Pure Sentiment, but not necessarily with money.

The 3.35 is the big race but might not be the biggest race for the highest-rated horses. Royal Fleet last ran in February in Meydan where he had a good winter and one can't help wondering if his main target is his next race. Cadillac keeps moving stables and one wonders why. This ought to be the most straight-forward race to sort out but it's got more traps in it than a greyhound race. It would be a race to see what the betting suggests.

Wickywickywheels in the 4.10 is 'one for the teenagers', a long distant echo of 1980's handicapper Wiki Wiki Wheels and looking for his fifth win a row. Not everybody will want to take him on but I will. I'm initially more taken by the recent form of Roger Varian's horses but realize that William Buick doesn't go anywhere without expecting to win. I'll think about a dual forecast, doing all these 'day out' sort of bets for fun, coupling Strawberri and Secret Shadow.

But having thought the two non-handicaps would be where any proper bet might be, I will take Tommy G (nap) in the 4.45. Re-appearing quickly after a win, preferring to carry a 4lb penalty rather than be re-assessed is one of the oldest tricks in the book. It is at least a clue even if it sounds a bit desperate to point out that the draw advantage is low and he's drawn 1. That is what nap material looks like at a meeting like this. It's not like knowing that Allaho and Honeysuckle will win at Cheltenham all season long.

I don't even want to guess in the last. We could say Glamorous Breeze and, for a laugh, couple it with Mr. Beaufort, him having been the inventor of the way that breezes are quantified.

I feel about as qualified as a tipster for tomorrow as the crowd of over-monied young men in their tweed and Burberry that got on the train to Ascot at Twickenham a few years, throwing the names of horses they intended to back around the carriage like confetti.

I wanted to lay them any price they wanted because I knew they were guessing. And I wouldn't have had to pay out any of them.

One must go circumspectly in such matters and have reasons for doing what one does.

I'll hope for Tommy G, see what price we can get about Galactic Jack, have a day out and look forward to Chepstow over some obstacles in October when one tries to get more business-like.