Racetrack Wiseguy Previews Cheltenham 2022

Cheltenham Previews begin very shortly so I'll get in early with mine.

The Dublin Festival at Leopardstown looked ominously like how the Soviet Union used to roll all their missiles and tanks past the Kremlin in a great show of strength. All the Irish-trained short-priced favourites went in impressively, confirmed their prominent positions in the ante post markets for Cheltenham, while Frodon and Greaneteen shrivelled like salted snails on behalf of the UK, and one couldn’t find much fault with any of them. Maybe it won’t be quite as straightforward as just carrying those winners on to Cheltenham but it’s highly likely that several will maintain their impressive form and so they’ll need to be put into trebles and more to achieve anything like worthwhile winnings. 

The UK have Shishkin. Bravemansgame isn’t a definite for Cheltenham and Edwardstone might be favourite for the Arkle but he’s got a job on, having only looked good against opposition from these shores so far.

Tuesday is my favourite day, partly because it has three top races but also because everything is still possible and no actual results have yet jaded one’s confidence which, after all these years, by now ought to know better.

The Supreme Novices at 1.30 has at least got us off to a good start in the past. The 99/1 ante post accumulator begins with Constitution Hill but 2/1 doesn’t look great value against two Irish contenders and stablemate Jonbon whose win at Haydock was probably better than it looked. However, the selection has looked entirely the business so far and might put the UK 1-0 up early doors against Dysart Dynamo who came home 19 lengths clear of we don’t know quite what at Punchestown and Sir Gerhard who beat more proven types at Leopardstown without being 100% impressive. One or two might go in other races in which they think they can be sure of better than coming fourth. 

Honeysuckle would appear to have to only turn up to win the Champion Hurdle, having demonstrated she has the measure of all in that division and Appreciate It only making his seasonal debut which is not ideal for here but might be for Punchestown at the end of April. However, the 4/6 in the accumulator might be all I have because she’s been nowhere near as good value as that for some time now. Gordon Elliott’s Teahupoo was belatedly thrown into the equation this weekend but with Adagio beaten at Wincanton and still a 16/1 chance, the bookmakers aren’t too frightened to be laying 10/1.

The Ballymore Novices at 1.30 on Wednesday is for any of the favourites who prefer not to take on the Supreme. I was grateful to Sir Gerhard at Leopardstown and have been similarly glad of Stage Star more than once but it will depend on what lines up for this more demanding test of stamina. 

Shishkin in the Champion Chase should be better off against Energumene round Cheltenham than when he beat him at Ascot although not looking like he would until the last. He’s welcome to keep the accumulator going if it still is. Energumene  is surely a good enough horse to win a championship race one day but will be second fav wherever he goes this year, which one would imagine would be here rather than over longer in the Ryanair. 

Facile Vega in the bumper can’t be opposed on all the deep impression made last time and can be added into whatever further combinations of red-hot prospects one takes into the meeting. He’s more than a ‘talking horse’ because the pundits were all in raptures about last time out. My only reservation is that I’ve had confident selections and fine-sounding tips about the Cheltenham Bumper plenty of times but can’t remember ever backing the winner. But how many progeny of the great Quevega will there be, compared to those of Galileo or Frankl. Not many. She might have got it right first time.

The Turners Novices, 1.30 on Thurs, is full of horses one could find reasons to oppose if one was being really picky and is another that could be used for small stakes if one’s ahead but might not provide a suggestion in bold type

But Allaho in the Ryanair (2.50) has long been the nap of the week, only sadly at Evens in a single, some trebles and in the 5-timer because the 7/4 had gone once it became non-runner, no bet. No more improvement is needed. The first four of the 5-timer probably only need to produce what they’ve done already to win whereas,

In the Gold Cup (3.30) on Friday, Galvin might still be on an upward curve and be good enough to be better than a crop of staying chasers that have shown by now all they are capable of and there’s not an obvious superstar among them. He either lands the 99/1 or will be worth a few quid on his own.

Before that, in the Triumph Hurdle, the ebullient owner, Rich Ricci, is back with Vauban, deeply impressive in Dublin, who will get put in the mix of trebles in which it will be quite possible to land a few doubles and come out unlucky but four winners could make it a bit of a pay week.

For me, there’s the 5-timer of Constitution Hill, Honeysuckle, Shishkin, Allaho and Galvin and then you add in Facile Vega and Vaubon but at the prices you’ll be needing most of them to cover all the combinations, so we stir them about and hope to come up with a few successful concatenations but the best treble looks like Allaho, Shishkin and Honeysuckle, very unadventurous but paying more than 3/1 for the money I got back from Mr. Coral when Bothwell Bridge pulled up at Newbury yesterday.

There’s not much there that’s not favourite for those who like a price but I reckon it’s easier to achieve 8/1 with a few of the above that than finding an 8/1 winner. One could have a speculative yankee for small change on some at longer odds. Maybe I’ll have-

Shan Blue (Tues, 2.50) if he swerves the Ryanair. 

Fury Road (Tues 5.30) is all but top rated and 7/1 if this is the race he runs in. You only have to forgive last time out and he beat Run Wild Fred in December. 

Stage Star (Weds 1.30) is an each way price if the wheels are put back on the Nicholls cart. Of course they will be but the stable doesn’t appear to have much to go to the top races with and Cheltenham in March isn’t his playground these days. But we are only talking about an each way yankee paid for with the money you can find down the back of the settee. 

Alaphilippe (Thurs 2.10) is a chancy guess to make up the fourth based on no more than the sort of trainer who might be capable of picking off such a race on his way to the big time and that it may or may not be named after a cyclist. Such races are pinsticking jobs that only look obvious once they’ve been run but I’ve yet to find a bookie prepared to take a bet based on my claim that, oh, yes, I realize now.

As long as it doesn’t hurt too much, it’ll be fine. Some of mine is paid for already and I don’t intend the balance sheet for 2022 to be showing a minus by tea time on Gold Cup day. I won’t see you in Barbados but we can hope to have enjoyed that feeling when you’re looking good coming to the last and then get up the hill before the others.  I’ll need it to happen three times and so only the third time will count. In The Dolphin public house, Old Portsmouth on Thursday, just before 3 p.m. if not sooner.

The Professor, long-time friend of the Racetrack Wiseguy column, has kindly submitted his view, which is,

Shishkin (nap) . This is definitely the bet of the week.  Looked in trouble at Ascot and still won. Cheltenham should suit even better so confidence is high.

Champ (nb) . A strange race last time where paisley park gave the field a 20 length start and still won. A proper championship pace here should see Champ in a better light.

Constitution Hill.  ( treble) Has looked very impressive this season. Finishing strongly uphill at Sandown suggests the track should really suit. 

Others to mention in dispatches -

Chantry House did this preview a real favour last year so should be looked at in the Gold Cup.

Walking on Air in the Ballymore. Very impressive at Newbury.  Should have lots more to come.

Dusart is a  huge price in the Brown Advisory chase.  The further he went the better last time.

American Mike in the bumper is a real Gordon Elliott talking horse so perhaps can serve it up to the Mullins favourite.

Thanks, Prof.

And Spenno, also of the Three Wise men, is also always welcome and has-

Nap… Sir Gerhard in the Ballymore 

NB… Concertista in the Mares Chase on Friday

Treble… Edwardstone in the Arkle

GoldCup… Al Boum Photo e/w… 10/1 looks too big, can’t see it being out of the frame.

Outsider… Anyharminasking in whichever handicap he runs (only horse to have beaten Constitution Hill). 

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We must have found a winner in there somewhere. Surely.