The strategy is first to pick the right race, which is often a novice hurdle, and then a horse which is usually from one of the major stables and thus we are looking for anything from even money to 3/1 as our odds of reward. We will possibly have a punt on a big handicap to see if we can go well clear of breaking even if the opportunity arises.
We might start next week or it might be the week after but if the tip isn't here on Friday night then let's say it will be there by 11 a.m. on Saturday morning.
By way of a preview I might mention the ante-post portfolio which has a few bets lying in wait for Cheltenham next March, which is where nearly everything is aimed these days notwithstanding the proliferation of festivals in which Aintree is then followed by Punchestown. I think even Yarmouth had a festival a couple of weeks ago.
The New One is the horse I'm looking forward to the most, progressing into his first senior season with the Champion Hurdle as the obvious target. I am happy enough with the 10/1 I have there and will augment it at shorter prices as soon as there is more evidence that he will be a genuine prospect but he is surely that already.
Last year's Gold Cup selection, Silvianiaco Conti, was travelling well in behind Bobsworth when tipping over and so at 8/1 looks fair value in a race is hard to win twice in two years whoever you are. At Fisher's Cross is another big favourite and he is added to the other two to make a Cheltenham treble which multiplies 8/1, 6/1 and 4/1 very attractively.
But the biggest question is what route will Sprinter Sacre take through the season. Quite possibly the best horse I have ever seen, there seems inadequate adventure in keeping him to two mile races. He saw off Cue Card with the same sort of majesty over two and a half miles and so his quote for the Gold Cup is interesting but only something to be looked at just yet. He would surely go to a King George first and I hope that will be this year. Maybe the more gruelling Cheltenham championship will wait another year and he will retain the two mile Champion Chase this season.
This all features increasingly in one's thoughts as my most successful year ever as a punter approaches its climax. This is the time of year I expect to do best. I have given back a chunk of this year's profit in recent weeks and so the first objective is to restore some of that before seeing if we can't end 2013 on a joyously lucrative high.
