Racetrack Wiseguy

 This is exactly the wrong time to start tipping horses here. Extending the run of winners today to six, the eternal pessimist knows that each winner only brings the next loser and the end of the run one bet closer. 

The prices of this sequence of success have been 10/11, 11/8 and Evens in a double, 10/11, 7/5 and 2/1 so it's hardly Pricewise. But all you have to do is come first and resisting the temptation to have a go is a big part of it. Gillespie at Chepstow yesterday, of which a very small part is owned by my mate, was heavily backed but so was another and Gillespie has hundreds of owners. The main reason for not joing in was that I'd missed the price but I had suggested 'no bet' was the preferred option when taking on another well-backed horse from an ambitious stable in red-hot form.

Confidence is one of one's worst enemies in this precarious game. There is an episode of Bilko in which he's on a great winning run and, like one does, he starts to think he can't go wrong. He thinks it's his lucky day and so he puts it all on the last and loses it. The 'kicker' is that the race is in a different time zone and it wasn't his lucky day there any more. 

It's still a long and winding road back to the good times but the 'plan' still works. I could have got a bit richer putting anything like proper money on this week but I could have blown it any number of times by doing so before arriving at this often worthwhile time of year.

So, with all those provisos in mind and no firm decisions made or cash invested yet, Fontwell tomorrow offers some temptation.

You'd think Philip Hobbs is back from a few seasons in the wilderness and that Doctors Hill in the 12.50 was a candidate but then one compares the market with the betting forecast, knows that Chris Gordon raids Fontwell like an old plundering Viking and that Kocktail Bleu wasn't expected to be best price 2/1.

A similar thing applies at 2.35 when Mr. Nicholls, not a regular visitor to Fontwell- which might be a bit beneath his dignity- has got Brave Knight apparently 8lb 'well in' and yet Grenadier Jed is half his predicted price. But he's from one of those less glamorous, honest-to-goodness stables and they've not been troubling the judge in recent weeks so I'd be tempted to stay with the fav there.

One is again somewhat taken aback by the price of Chris Gordon's Fortune Dancer whose last season's form figures don't inspire but you go with He Is A Cracker at your peril.

It looks like the Skelton's think they have the 1.25 in the bag with Malfoy Manor; I'd find it difficult to pick between For Gina and Flintara if I was there and doing well enough to want to have a go at the 2.00. I doubt if I'd be taking odds on about Tigers Moon in the last but the market seems to think it's a blot on the handicap.

So, it's one of those cards one might think one can go through. However, if any of the above-mentioned horses were ones I was seriously suggesting you put money on, they'd be in bold letters. It wouldn't be a bad afternoon out there - maybe win some, lose some. But, meanwhile, I'm still thinking.