I did once know somebody who had a lucky ante-post punt on the 1000 Guineas for more money than sense at 16/1 and his hapless little independent bookie, who tried to make a living out of equally hapless punters who habitually didn't land such winners, closed the account. Barney Curley knew much more about what he was doing and I'm not the least bit surprised that he had some of his accounts closed. He had to organize a team to spread his money about various betting shops to land his coups. Your average branch cashier doesn't look too closely at what a betting slip says so top marks to the Victor Chandler employee who turned Barney's cash pony away having read it and understood its implications.
I'm very disappointed, only three months into a newly opened William Hill account, to find myself 'Restricted'. It's not as if I've taken them to the cleaners but their algorithm has quite rightly identified that they're never going to win. It will be a slow process, I dare say, but they will gradually pay me.
I was barred from playing some of their free promotional games but their website does funny things and I got on to their football prediction game this week. You need to nominate six games in which there are 3 or 4 goals. A couple more goals at Swindon would have landed me £200 in free bets but, very gladly, there were no more goals at Fratton Park once Portsmouth had got level at 2-2 and so that's worth a fiver which means a free stab at the Grand National.
I don't necessarily see Delta Work as an outright win option, though. Noble Yeats came from under nearly everybody's radar last year but has gone on to prove that no fluke, not least being noticed by enough people staying on in the Cheltenham Gold Cup to make him 8/1 second fav to confirm the form with Any Second Now on, is it, 11lb worse terms. We could be back in the Golden Age of 1970's Nationals when, so it was thought, the likes of Red Rum, L'Escargot and Spanish Steps would always be in the first four. We like to think it works like that. It makes us feel secure and as if we understand what's going on but we don't. These are horses and one reason why Mrs. Bet365 is able to pay herself quite so much is that the form book is a record of what has happened but not an oracle that can give reliable clues about what will happen next. However, there's every reason to put Noble Yeats in the four while not expecting him to win it.
Since 2000, in the current millennium, only three winners have carried more than 11st. So I'll have Le Milos at 20/1, carrying 10-11as the 'profile' horse that ticks a lot of boxes and look forward to Harry's signature 'aeroplane' celebration. That is jump racing's reply to Frankie's 'flying dismount' on the flat. Maybe I could have introduced such panache into amateur cycling time trials thirty years ago but you don't feel like it after 12 hours, not even 25 miles and, anyway, I never won.
Looking further down the betting, I wonder if Joe Tizzard will find a race for The Big Breakaway somewhere one day but I'd want all of the 50/1 about it being in this race so Longhouse Poet, sixth last year, could be thereabouts.
When Tiger Roll won at 4/1 in 2019, we all knew he would. I told anybody who wanted to know that he would but 4/1 isn't what one wants for backing a National winner so even I didn't do it, which is madness but Corach Rambler, who has won regularly enough, doesn't look like a 6/1 chance over the longest distance and so is left out at our peril.
So,
1. Le Milos
2. Delta Work
3. Longhouse Poet
4. Noble Yeats
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.