Cheltenham Preview with Racetrack Wiseguy

 

The Cheltenham Preview industry is becoming almost as big as the festival itself with every Tom, Dick and Harry who's got an opinion that anybody can find signed up to share their hapless guessing for the benefit of audiences who think they're going to learn something.

So let's hope they know something, then, but the Wiseguy tip for the pundit worth listening to is Kevin Blake.

I've had a bad year so far, I'm not afraid to admit, and am only ahead because I carried forward a healthy amount, promotions on bookmaker's websites help, I've withdrawn to pitifully low stakes and the on-track bookie at Fontwell made a mistake and paid me twice as much as he should have done but it won't show in his records so there was no point in telling him.

 

State Man is a good horse that might have had a few Champion Hurdles lined up ahead of him waiting to be collected but he reminds me of Excelebration, the horse unlucky enough to be the same age as Frankel who thus mostly turned up only to see his rival's backside leaving him behind in the final furlong. State Man is the only one likely to have a chance of finding a way of beating Constitution Hill but 11/4 is not tempting enough to make me invest in him doing so. They could try chalking up 20/1 but, like Spenno said at Fontwell last week, Constitution Hill is 'unrateable' so far. He's apparently seen off all the classy opposition he's had by some distance and without coming out of second gear. He's never going to be a price worth taking, not least because he frightens off most of the opposition there could have been. We might never know how good he is so I hope he goes over fences and further and wins a Gold Cup or two rather than make the Champion Hurdle a non-event for the foreseeable future. Although horse racing doesn't usually work out like that.

However, the knock-on effect is that there is no point in Honeysuckle (Tues, 4.10) taking him on. Matt Chapman, in his ebullient way, insists that she's kept her form and is running as well as she ever did when winning her hurdle titles but she wasn't up against much when she did. Thus, it's entirely common sense to go for the Mares Hurdle and finish her glorious career in the winner's enclosure by outclassing the ever-improving Marie's Rock even if it is only by a short head.

Mr. Henderson's Luccia (maybe Tues, 1.30, or otherwise Thurs 4.50) has done nothing but impress so far and will be a bet whether taking the easier option of the Mares Novice Hurdle or if we have to trust his judgement that he can beat Facile Vega, who got beat by surely going too fast early doors at Leopardstown. Not all of us still trust in God but we will have to trust in Mr. Henderson on that.

Also on Day One, there can often be some good things hidden away in the non-headline races and Gaillard du Mesnil (Tues, 5.30) might well add to more than Willie Mullins's fair share of the winners slightly under the radar. There was nothing wrong with what he did at Leopardstown and the extra distance might make him almost nap material.

On Wednesday, I'm not convinced that Paul Nicholls thinks he has the ammunition to take Cheltenham on with these days but Hermes Allen (1.30) has done it all very well over hurdles even if his future is going to be even better over larger obstacles. We will see about that, as we will about Queen's Gamble, now available at 16/1 for the bumper (5.30) after her very distressing defeat at Market Rasen last week. There have been more names crossed off the Cheltenham short list in recent weeks than added to it.

If there's a reason for not getting involved in the first on Thursday it is that Gordon Elliot looks like he has the better horse but I don't want to take on Mr. Mullins with it. 

Last year's dead cert, much better than a penalty kick, Allaho, is doubtful for the Ryanair Chase and so I've no idea where we stand but I liked all I read about Teapuhoo (3.30) and his easy warm-up win that takes him to the stayer's hurdle as a horse on the upgrade that obviously has one to beat but you don't get 3/1 if you haven't.

In a Gold Cup in which the dour stayer, Stattler, who would probably win if they went round three times instead of twice, is 13/2 third favourite, one might think Galopin des Champs, who put lots of daylight between himself and the second in the Irish Gold Cup 'from the back of the last', must be a good thing. I can't see which one beats him unless Ahoy Senor continues to make the form book a complete waste of time. If I'm winning, I might have a couple of quid on Bravemansgame but I'm not even sure he'll run there. And, if it was, by some outrageous fluke, completely party time, I'd stay on for the last, the very last, after what can sometimes seem to be a hard week, and keep faith with a favourite horse, Fantastic Lady.

But this is a dodgy game, much like batting, that seems easy when it's going well but hellish when you can't quite get it right. I'll be taking it carefully, not seeing the point of throwing money around with the same wild-eyed optimism as those ostentatious, tweed-clad twenty-somethings who used to board our train to Ascot at Twickenham and start shouting the names of horses to each other.

I'd have laid them all at least 16/1 about all those they saw fit to mention and I'd have cleaned up. They are those who think a day at the races costs a few hundred quid and then don't give it any further thought.

But I'm not like them at all. I much prefer it if an interest or a day out can pay me.

I hope Honeysuckle wins on Tuesday and Gaillard du Mesnil should do, too. It could be all over after day one if Luccia's made it a treble by winning the Supreme but we might be waiting until Thursday for her. I'll be throwing Teapuhoo into the trebles that involve them all and Hermes Allen can multiply them up if it all goes right. I just don't want to find myself in the workhouse that is hidden somewhere in the small print of Jacob Rees-Mogg's manifesto. I don't think writing about local classical music concerts is what he means by 'work'.