The last few weeks have seen a steady flow of cash from the bookmaker to me. I've rarely had such a good time of it and I've certainly never been this far ahead in a calendar year. Roadie Joe won at Warwick today, including the gift of a starting price of 9/4 when I'd happily taken 7/4 last night but Guaranteed Best Price is a wonderful thing as the turf accountants fall over each other in pursuit of the mug punter's business.This is not making me rich, you understand. Gone are the bad old days of trying to make it through to pay day, and often failing, with some would-be shrewd maneouvres. Nowadays it is okay to have a few modest investments, where it doesn't matter if they lose but becomes an interest that pays interest if they win often enough.
Of course, all good runs come to an end and it is dangerous to let light in on magic but I thought I might see if I can demonstrate how it's done by looking through tomorrow's racing and see what we can find.
Tomorrow there are flat meetings at Goodwood and Redcar, jumping at Perth, flat in Ireland at Naas and then an evening all-weather meeting at Kempton. I am mainly interested in jump racing so look at Perth first. And we start by looking at the novice, juvenile and beginners races, the hurdles followed by the chases. As a general rule, these races are more likely to be won by the best horses on the day and are easier to assess. We might have a look at the handicaps later but those are much more difficult, more likely to be bookmakers' benefits and we will bet on what we want to bet on, not be lured into a race with lots of angles to it just because we can have a much bigger price but then get beat.
The 2.20 at Perth is a Novice Hurdle. Miss Dinamic (pictured) will be a short price but she has proved herself, might not have much to beat even though she must give them a stone in weight and whereas, for as long as one could remember, the booking of A.P. McCoy to ride such a horse was significant, he's retired and so Richard Johnson is the most significant now. There is too much to like about Miss Dinamic not to back her, she's coming over from Ireland for this little race.
We need to think about the 4.40 a bit more. Trainer John Ferguson and jockey Aidan Coleman have dominated the summer jump racing with their classy ex-flat horses in this sort of race. There is no need to do your own homework with the form book, Oddschecker provides two summaries of each race as well as the latest prices, indicating which horses are shortening up in the market and which being offered at bigger prices than previously. You don't take the verdict of the tipsters at face value but read between the lines a bit. One of them isn't that impressed with Hadfield's debut win at Worcester and, having won, has to give 7lb to Impulsive American, trained by Pipe and ridden by Scudamore. It doesn't seem that long since that meant Martin Pipe and Peter Scudamore but horse racing is as dynastic as any sport and now it's David Pipe and Tom Scudamore.
But I notice that Hadfield is a Sea the Stars gelding, who would have been the superstar horse of a decade or more had the freakish Frankel not showed up a year or two later and outdone everything in living memory. Impulsive American is marked up at 11/4 in the early evening, with Hadfield generously 5/2 with Bet365. Persiflage appears to be coming over just to keep Miss Dinamic company in the horse box but is only 4/1 so obviously somebody thinks better of her than the bare form of her first run. We'll watch the market on this race to see what further hints we might get.
The best race at Goodwood is the listed event over just about 1m 2f. Basem, trained by Saeed Bin Saroor and ridden by James Doyle, is the clear favourite and one reason given for opposing him with Battalion is not as good as it looks,
BATTALION has won over 1m2f and further,
Yes, but Goodwood is downhill all the way for the last few furlongs and not one where stamina is an obvious advantage. There is plenty of blue showing up alongside Basem as his price is already contracting. He could be a solid bet.
The first two races at Goodwood are maiden races, in some ways the equivalent of novice races over jumps but the back-end of the season is not the best time to be getting involved. Good Run, in the 2.35 is a stablemate of Basem but a Godolphin horse that was sent to Carlisle for its debut might not be one of their best so I'll be happy to swerve the odds-on about that and read through the handicaps to see if we can put together a combination of three or four horses for a small stakes speculation which won't matter to us either way as long as the main selection goes in.
Notarised (Goodwood 4.20) rings a bell from somewhere in the past, has shortened in price to 11/2 and comes down from Mark Johnson's Yorkshire stable.
In the 3.30 at Perth, I'll take the point that Bouggietopieces hasn't won over more than 2m 4f and side with Bar A Mine, sent all that way to the furthest north racecourse on these islands from near Cheltenham.
In the 5.45, although a short price, one has to think Epic Warrior is making an even longer trip full of potential, having only been sent as far north as Southwell last time. It's only people who live as far south as Portsmouth that would even think of Southwell as being 'north'.
So, we must make Miss Dinamic the banker bet but we don't have to depend on her completely. Basem and Epic Warrior in a double for half that stake, or a more ambitious yankee including Notarised and Bar A Mine would make another moderate pay day if everything went right for us. That's not very likely, so we don't go overboard and give away cash needlessly on a whim. There will be better days to lump onto horses like Emotionless when we want a proper bet. It's not compulsory and I sometimes feel as if I've won when I don't have a bet and the horses I had been looking at get beaten. Not losing a few quid is, in the end, just as good as winning a few quid.
Now that Paddy's got round to pricing up the Perth meeting, Miss Dinamic is all of 8/11 but what can you do. The Saturday Nap is due to return on October 10th.
