Cheltenham Festival Preview 2014

Tuesday 

My week will be a happy and profitable one if The New One wins the Champion Hurdle on day one, having already backed him at 10/1, 5/1 and 3/1. He is currently joint favourite or second favourite at around 3/1.

He has every right to finish in front of most of the opposition around Cheltenham, including the likelihood that he should reverse the form with My Tent or Yours in Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle because this is over a stiffer track and The New One is probably an even better horse over two and a half miles.

The one that you have to worry about is the prolific winner and reigning champion, Hurricane Fly. The worry is that The New One has made occasional jumping mistakes when racing at speed.

Most bookmakers were reasonably impressed when Hurricane Fly won the Irish Champion Hurdle but beating Captain Cee Bee only three lengths with Jezki and Our Conor even closer behind in a 4 runner race left a few questions about whether he is quite as good as he was.

I’m happy to be on The New One, though, because he has put in his best performances at Cheltenham and a recent interview with the jockey sounded encouraging. 

Wednesday  

We missed the boat in the Champion Chase by not taking the chance against the well-being of Sprinter Sacre when he was still favourite. He is probably the best jumps horse I have ever seen in the flesh (and that includes Desert Orchid) but now he is not taking part after being pulled up in his only race this season and Nicky Henderson prefers to keep him for next year.

And so, Sire de Grugy is 6/4  favourite and that looks fair enough. Possibly good enough to make him almost the best bet of the week. 

Thursday 

Wonderful Charm is one of my favourite horses and has done nothing wrong so far, including getting beaten narrowly by Oscar Whisky in December when giving him weight. The novice chase here is where he hopefully will prove to be as good as we thought he would be.

Another favourite horse is At Fisher’s Cross but it hasn’t gone well for him so far this season, jumping badly and being inexplicably worse than he should have been. But he put in an improved performance in the trial for the World Hurdle in which the legendary Big Bucks returned from a long lay off through injury but it was an odd race, won by a 66/1 outsider who has been beaten round Cheltenham any number of times, and so it’s hard to know what we were supposed to learn from it.

But we can avoid all of those difficult decisions if we think that Annie Power, if she takes part in this race, would be the answer in any case. She could run in the mares race on Tuesday or the Champion Hurdle but this is where we are most likely to see her for various reasons. She hasn’t really been tested yet but if there are question marks over the other main contenders here, the only question about her is how good she is. If she does run in an alternative race, I’d want More of That on my side.

But Wonderful Charm will be the tip for Thursday at about 6/1 currently which is preferable to a shorter or similar price about those in the World Hurdle when , quite honestly, you are afraid of so many others.

Friday 

If you still have any money left by Friday, don’t worry- there are still plenty of remaining opportunities to dispose of it.

If you like betting on the County Hurdle then I’m afraid you are beyond redemption and there is nothing I can do for you.

But Guitar Pete impressed in his latest race in Ireland, being one of those proven types who has solid form in the book and turns up and ruins the reputations of those flashy types who have been talked up but not proved much yet. He’s done it at least twice and it could happen again here.

I backed Kings Palace for the novice hurdle after he was massively impressive when winning here before Christmas and I’m not going to change my mind about that. 

But the Gold Cup is the big one if you have lasted this long. Bobsworth has shortened up from 9/4 to 2/1 with Paddy Power and he’s put Silvianiaco Conti out from 3/1 to 7/2.

Personally, I much prefer market moves to the form book as an indicator but market moves in the 12 hours before the race are more significant than those a month before.

It is a classic face off between the two big stables of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson. I backed Silviniaco Conti last year and was feeling confident until he fell when in a nice position and going well just before it got serious. Subsequently he has won the King George impressively while Bobsworth got run off his feet and finished nowhere at Haydock in the Autumn before reasserting his credentials in Ireland at Christmas.

I’m not deserting Silviniaco now, not least because it is very hard for a Gold Cup winner to return and win it again. Bobsworth is a tough little fighter and is likely to be very hard to beat, though, and there’ll be not a dry eye in my house if he wins. There will just be a bit less money. 

And, having said all that, if anyone is still awake, I’ll make Kings Palace (nap) the best bet of the week. If you see the trainer, David Pipe, interviewed and he says it’s his best of the week- and I dare say it will be- then back it. He said that about Salut Flo two years ago and he saved my bacon. Mind you, if he nominates something else then perhaps we had better beware. 

The Grand National 

The National is timed just so that once one has recovered from Cheltenham, it feels like time to try again.

Tidal Bay is 13 years old now but continues to defy his age and keeps on producing admirable efforts. If they were both to run, I’d expect him to have to give weight to ex-Gold Cup winner, Long Run, but I’d also think it worth backing him to do so. 3 miles doesn’t look far enough for him these days and Aintree would be a fine place for him to end his career in the winner’s enclosure.

A 13 year old winner would defy all the workmanlike logic of those who use profiles to find winners.

At the other end of the age and experience scale is Rocky Creek,
currently 25/1.