Derby Preview

Last year I received an e-mail to ask if I was alright, the feeling being that if I hadn't posted a Derby Preview then there must be something wrong. Well, I'm a jumping man, as it were, these days, and I'm not sure if I ever did do a Derby Preview but I was moved by the concern. And, to put all minds at rest, I'll try my little best to solve the Derby puzzle now.

The Queen's horse, Carlton House, is a very uneasy favourite tonight at 5/2. Whether that's anything to do with this week's foot injury worries is hard to say but this time last week he was not going to go off at any price longer than 13/8 so you can't back him with any confidence. I believe in the ultimate free market of the betting ring more than any other clue and you don't go in at 5/2 if you thought all the evidence suggested the horse might go off at 5/4. The royal wedding made royalists of more of us than would care to admit it and even though I was at the cricket that day, I was as bewitched by Pippa Middleton as any bloke who still has a pulse but betting on horse races ought to be more scientific than how nice the owner's grandson's wife's sister looks in a nice white frock. I'm sorry, but however often the Dante Stakes turns out to be the best Derby trial, and however much I have a quaint admiration for the Queen, I'm not being led by such queasy sentiment here.

The obvious alternative last week was Fabre's Pour Moi, when it shortened up from 7/1 to 4/1, which is out of the great sire Montjeu with, is it, Darshaan on the distaff side, and without reading any form at all it began to look like a second favourite's race. But now Blue Square will let you have 6/1 and they are never knowingly generous.

If any jockey has inherited the controversial mantle of Lester Piggott, it is surely Kieren Fallon and then some. I don't remember Lester ever having to go to court to get his Derby ride but I'm sure he would have done if he had to in his less litigious days. He wants to ride Recital badly. Well, not quite. He wants to ride him well.

Unlike jump racing, where you want to evaluate how exposed horses have run over courses and distances, the big money flat is much more about breeding and here is another Montjeu progeny, one big clue, and Fallon is giving us another, rather less gracefully than when Steve Cauthen used to guide us very openly towards the pay out window on Henry Cecil horses in the 1980's. But, we take note of what we decide to deem significant. I'm the tipster in form having seen beyond any doubt that Barcelona were 3-1 better than Manchester United last week and I'm thus richer by exactly the amount I expected to be.

Recital wins the Derby tomorrow. Get on.