And that is what 2018 has been like so far. Getting in front, giving it back, the horror of actually going behind but then, oh so carefully, retrieving one's position. Most mug punters are losers but I can't abide being like that so one has to recover like a waiter carrying a large tray of drinks across a slippery floor.
Footpad in the Arkle, the very next race, is possibly an even sounder bet and once the first two have gone in, I know what it will be like - I'll be thinking I can retire and move to Malaga and go to lunch every day with my best mate like I have done most days for the last 16 years. Except I'm not a Malaga sort of person. I might get by in Cheltenham but Portsmouth will probably do. But there is nothing else in the Arkle I can see beating Footpad and there's a chance I'll be feeling indestructible by early Tuesday afternoon, which means by all means put them in the trebles and accumulators for onward progress but stick, don't twist, for the rest of the first day.
Only a lunatic would get seriously involved in any of the other races unless they want to lump on at odds on and there is no kudos in tipping Buveur d'Air or, for that matter, much on Wednesday, unless you think that Paul Nicholls has accidentally acquired jumping's answer to Seabiscuit in Black Corton. One needs must swerve races with Black Corton in them because he will get beat but it's becoming difficult to say when.
So you either steam into Samcro in the Ballymore on Weds or you can have a day off.
I have Shattered Love (JLT Novices, Thursday) in a combination bet on Thursday. Not only because it did me a small favour in Ireland but because its name is one of the best two-word poems I've ever read. It is worth a mention in a market in which some of those ahead of it might go elsewhere.
But it's not only sentiment, even of it some of it is - let's face it, it's not an exact science - that makes me want to nominate The New One (Stayers Hurdle) to finally get compensation for the Champion Hurdle he was robbed of. That would bring the house down. Having won over longer distances than two miles earlier in his career, I've been surprised that he was aimed at the Champion Hurdle time and again. One last hurrah in the Stayers, at 9/1, is almost unavoidable but, if Supasundae runs, that is the sensible choice.
We go unequivocally for Apples Shakira (Triumph Hurdle, Friday) in the hope and belief that is the race she goes for, And then I saw her race, no doubt in my mind. I like the Albert Bartlett Novice Stayers race very much but wonder who is going to turn up for it and can find reasons not to back most of them but since we already have non-runner no bet, we'll say Santini, with a modicum of seriousness, and back it.
They have made the festival a four day thing by introducing some races one doesn't get very excited about. The Professor was explaining to me today how it was only one further race away from becoming a five day festival. God forbid, but that seems to be the way of the world.
It depends whether you're winning and enjoying it, or losing, and not, by the time of the Gold Cup. It might be a crowning glory but you might have given up by then.
I don't believe in Might Bite for the Gold Cup. I'll be proved wrong in my own time but it's 3m and 2 and a half furlongs. Sizing John kept winning after winning the Gold Cup last year and then mysteriously failed. I wouldn't give up on him. But it will depend on the ground. As long as it is soft enough, I'll have 6/1 Native River, who is a proper horse but that 6/1 includes the weather forecast and, in all conscience, I can't include him in such a long term treble.
So, it's easy to nominate the treble- Getabird, Footpad and Apples Shakira. It's like taking candy from a baby.
The Professor has been doing very well for himself recently. His strategy pays off enough times to compensate for when it doesn't. He'll be along later with his three.
--
Here he is.
With just over 2 weeks left the excitement builds towards
the festival.
As we know there are plenty at short prices that would make
an easy treble.
Altior, Footpad, Apple's Jade, Samcro and Buveur d'air.
I shall take Altior and put him with two others to make a
treble.
Altior's comeback at Newbury showed he is a class apart in
the 2 mile chasing division.
I will oppose Samcro with On the Blind Side who seemed to
relish the hill when winning at Cheltenham in November. He has had a nice break
and will be fresh for this.
The third and this will tantalise readers is ... Might Bite.
With Native River providing a perfect target the high cruising speed of Might
Bite will allow him to keep tabs and pick up Native River to win the Gold Cup.
I would as an aside suggest a reverse forecast with the two
of them in the Gold Cup just in case.
A little side bet I would also have to keep the whole week
interesting is betting Nicky Henderson to be top trainer over Mullins and
Elliott.
Here's to a successful Cheltenham