--
The Thorpe book brings back memories of the Liberal Party in the 1970's, those days of great inspiration despite what a motley crew in retrospect they turned out to be, and then invite some comparison with their only dreamt of position in Parliament now - or for the next few months.
I was in search of a device to calculate how percentages of the vote in the forthcoming General Election would translate into seats, notwithstanding that this year, more than any time previously, regional and local trends might make any national swing less useful in predicting the composition of the next House of Commons.
I still can't help thinking that the Conservatives will somehow hold on, due to the unconvincing demeanour of the current Labour leadership. The projections I found, though, don't seem to agree with me. One recent extrapolation put Labour 5 seats short of an overall majority, but the the Liberals retaining as many as 19 seats. That would presumably mean Ed Milliband talking to both the Liberal leader, whoever that might be by then, presumably still Clegg, or Alex Salmond. One can't see the much expanded Westminster SNP doing business with a reduced David Cameron but the prospect of a Lib-Lab coalition always has behind it the other possibility of a Lab-SNP government and Alex Salmond was given a 2/1 chance of being Deputy Prime Minister which makes Paddy Power's current offer of 12/1 about a Lab-SNP government look worth a few bob.
Somehow, it seems to odd to contemplate that the SNP could be in power at Westminster, having failed to win their own referendum but the upsurge in support for them in Scotland as a result of that campaign could have the surprising collateral effect of gaining power in the Parliament they wanted to separate from.
--
And, equally on the subject of statistics highlighting striking anamolies and apparent value in the bookmakers' odds, Chelsea to win 2-0 at home has long been a theme of mine, even since the last time Mourinho was manager there.
Last Saturday was quite a pay day as the three horses in my four trebles had gone in and everything depended on the Chelsea-Newcastle result. At 2-0 with twenty minutes to go, one has every hope and likelihood that it will stay that way but you do need confirmation of the final whistle. But eventually one was able to establish that since Christmas, I had recovered all of the losses sustained in 2014.
So I have looked at Chelsea's home record, which is Played 10, Won 10, 21 goals against 3. And that 6 out of those 10 wins were 2-0.
I hadn't been aware quite how glaring the opportunity I had noticed was. Here is an ostensibly odds-on chance being offered at 5/1. And so, although it doesn't apply to away games and possibly not to home against Man City, it is an option to be considered every week for the time that Mourinho is in charge there.
--
A forthcoming meeting of the Portsmouth Poetry Society is on 'A poet’s partner speaks', but since I know who most of my favourite poets' partners were, I didn't want to speak for any of them so I produced the following, which continues our recent discussion of line-endings. I will say that the poem barely deserves to be typed out but we do enjoy an anarchic bit of a joke,
Mrs. David Green
You told me you wrote poems when we met.
It’s something I’m unlikely to forget.
I was expecting at least a sonnet
A week from you but, what is it I get?
An each way tip for a horse at Market
Rasen or a copy of a booklet
Of poems, I might say, by an as yet
Not the least bit famous, scruffy poet
Once in a blue moon. It’s my fault I set
My eyes on you and, possibly, peut etre,
I sometimes do think I could have done bet-
ter. But, though we aren’t rich, we’re not in debt
either and when we have a tête a tête,
the fact I don’t exist I don’t regret.