I'll suggest a horse here each weekend, usually on a Friday night, you put a shilling on it and then we see how much profit we have made by Christmas. We did badly last year, never quite turned it round, but in 2011 and 2012 showed a slight profit and then a healthy one.
I'm glad I swerved the race at Newton Abbott today which looked like a question I couldn't answer, whether Taquin de Seuil could give the weight away to Colour Squadron and I disregarded one of my favourite horses, Wonderful Charm. And there you go, Wonderful Charm wins at 100/30.
Avoiding a loser is almost as good as backing a winner and that was evidence enough that Paul Nicholls has arrived on time, as usual, with his horses in good order ready for the Chepstow meeting. It also goes some way to restoring confidence in Sam Twiston-Davies as the newly appointed stable jockey. I saw a few races over the summer in which he got beaten on short-priced favourites and, yes, I am talking through my pocket a little bit. Hold up tactics didn't work on a few occasions and I just began to wonder about him.
It doesn't take much imagination to line up the Nicholls horses at this meeting in doubles and trebles and the first four races are the novice hurdlers and chasers that I tend to put the most trust in. Full Blast, Emerging Talent and Southfield Theatre are the ones to look at. I'd rather back a winner than use my imagination. They are unlikely to be big prices but one can't really tip odds on chances forever because even a 1/2 shot has more than a 33% chance of not winning. But Chepstow is a favourite jumping track of mine, one where I feel there are few excuses, stamina gets its due reward and you can see the race develop in easy stages.
And so I will have to wait for some prices to be quoted before deciding where we go with our first shilling's worth. I'll come back and fill this blank in later.
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Bookies are always ready to put up prices about the next day's big handicaps but are less keen to commit on the novice races, where they seem to want to check out how the land lies. I'd be happy to oppose Colour Squadron with Southfield Theatre if he were to run again tomorrow but, if he was withdrawn then the Nicholls horse would be hardly any price at all.
Emerging Talent might be one for the future more than this time.
There was much to like about Russian Bolero's win at Plumpton but this could prove to be a bit of a step up in class and so I'm happy to go Full Blast (Chepstow 2.00), in the hope of getting even money, clean up, and re-invest the winnings next week.