As soon as Paddy Power went 'non-runner no bet' on the Betfair Chase I took his kind offer of 5/2 about Silviniaco Conti (Haydock 3.00). The fact that he has now gone 11/4 isn't too distressing.
There are plenty of other races of interest tomorrow but none that appeal as big betting opportunities so I'm happy to go all in on this early rehearsal for the Gold Cup. It is sometimes said that one shouldn't be afraid of one horse but here one could legitimately worry about at least three of them. The form of the Pipe stable advertises Dynaste's claims; one would never oppose Bobsworth lightly; there seems no end to Tidal Bay's enduring charm and Cue Card could be the biggest danger of all. I would be happy to oppose Long Run in this class of race from now on, though.
But Silviniaco was my Gold Cup selection last season and remains so for this year despite last year's fall. If he's going to beat Bobsworth then now would be the time to start doing it in a race apparently now close to Paul Nicholls' heart.
I've read the cases for the opposition and against my selection but this is one to go for and a bet that will have a big influence on whether I can finish my best ever calendar year by reaching a new level of profit or if I have to settle for something less.