I said last week I didn't know whether to start this run up to Boxing Day, trying to pick our way through some weekend racing, this week or next but since there is a genuine, good priced prospect this weekend, I'm going to start now.
It breaks nearly all of the rules. It is not a Saturday nap because it runs on Sunday, it is not a novice hurdler or even a jumper, I don't think I've backed a winner for a month and there are at least three or four horses in opposition to be genuinely afraid of. But I might be able to turn all that around in one brave plunge.
Some of the big bookmakers reported support for Novellist in the Arc de Triomphe yesterday and that only confirmed what I was already thinking. It looks like a wide open race without being the classiest renewal ever. I'd like to see The Fugue run well but it would be expecting a lot for her to actually win; Leading Light could possibly justify his buying himself in at a late stage if he takes another step forward and one would have taken 16/1 about Al Kazeem in the summer but we assume he is 'over the top' and unlikely to return to his best at this stage of the season. But Orfevre and Treve seem to have doubts about them that make them worth taking on when other firms have shortened Novellist's price but Paddy Power were still laying 5/1 a few minutes ago. I'm happy with that and, in the hopes of no hard luck story in running- because there often are some in this race, I'm thinking we might get off to a cracking start.