Cheltenham 2011 Preview

Backers who like the old adage of ‘good horses at good prices’ will be looking forward to Cheltenham with such good, if not legendary, horses as Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded and Big Bucks all available at odds that pay scant respect to their various litanies of achievement. Of course, this is mainly due to the fact that they are nearing the end of illustrious careers but whereas Big Bucks is still reigning champion in his division and has only had to retreat from cast-iron odds-on to an almost backable price in the face of a new pretender, Master Minded is still only an 8 year old and yet is already trying to regain rather than retain his title.
Although it would be heartwarming and wonderful to see any of them win at Cheltenham this year, and if I could nominate one it would surely be Denman, I’m not sure I’m going to include any of them in a list of suggestions. Ever since Kauto began to establish his reputation as a consummate athlete but less than reliable conveyance, I’ve avoided races with him in them as opportunities for investment but enjoyed them as just the thrilling spectacular sport they provide.
In trying to compile a treble from this year’s festival, which we do usually do quite well at without ever actually nailing it, it’s going to be necessary to get involved in some genuinely wide open races on paper and suggest that two out of three will pay handsomely enough if we spread the stake money out and do the three doubles as well.
Menorah (pictured) was hugely impressive in two big wins in the Autumn and came up the Cheltenham hill looking as tough as you’d want, somehow reminding me of how Brave Inca used to do it a few years ago. Backing him will involve trusting that Binocular doesn’t return to his very best, that Hurricane Fly hasn’t proved as much as his Irish wins might appear and that the next four in the betting are ‘next’ for good reason but I’ve had Menorah in mind as a possible good value nap all season and so here it is- Menorah (Champion Hurdle, nap). Binocular is so 'in and out' that it would be a big coincidence for him to produce the same performance in the same race exactly one year later.
I backed Wayward Prince when he won at Wetherby last month and one had to admire the staying potential that day but the form doesn’t compare with Time for Rupert in the RSA Chase or the Nicholls-trained Aiteen Thirty Three. I’ll happily take these two against the field in a race we don’t generally do too badly in but one might need to watch where the money goes on the day. We go for the latter in block script here simply for the value, because we are enterprising and taking a chance this year.
Quevega reappeared for the first time last year in the Mares race and won well and so if doing so again, might be not have any worries this year either to hold a treble together for us. But another year older and an even money chance might not be quite as swashbuckling a suggestion as I’m going for in such a mood.
Bob’s Worth outstayed some well regarded sorts in one of the best novice races on the track in the winter and would only have to repeat that performance to take all the beating in whichever race he runs in. With Blue Square now going non-runner no bet in their Ante Post markets, it’s safe to take advantage of the price in perhaps the Neptune Investment Novices.
Poquelin defied the weight and the odds earlier in the season and goes to the Ryan Air Chase as favourite. This is one new race brought in to expand the festival to four days that one can’t object to because otherwise there wasn’t a chase at this distance between the two-mile Champion and the Gold Cup. I’ve been less devoted to Nicholls-trained horses this season as Nicky Henderson has seemed to be the man in form but Poquelin, the real name of the playwright Moliere, has been a favourite for some years and I’ll include him in.
Without doing anything wrong, Big Bucks has found himself immensely backable at even money after Grands Crus enormously impressive laying down of credentials at the last meeting but that race might only have served to make the so far undisputed champion into a betting proposition but I wouldn’t be making a definite choice here just yet.
There must have been money for Kauto Star in the Gold Cup for him to be back in at 5/1 and however much I’d like to see him do it again, it’s not a picture I can bring to mind. Kauto has provided some of the most memorable performances for a generation but he equally stays in the memory for having fallen apart in heartbreaking ways. Long Run let the treble down for us last year, squandering the nap and so unless there are stories of Imperial Commander not being right, he makes the most appeal at 7/2 which seems very fair because he's been impressive in the top class on Cheltenham's turning gradients whereas Long Run's proven form was in the very different King George on Kempton's less demanding three miles.
It’s often useful to hear a word from Ireland about the Bumper but Henderson’s Ericht is prominent in the betting and has carried my money before so apart from keeping an eye on market movers on the day, he is a hope rather than an expectation.
So this year’s Cheltenham treble is Menorah, Bob’s Worth and Poquelin. 9/2, 11/2 and 3/1 make, ermm, 143/1. Well, it’s worth a go. Multiplication's a wonderful thing if you stumble on a few correct answers.
Silver by Nature became very much an obvious National contender after winning the Haydock trial again but although you’d want to be on him if the ground came up soft, you might regret it if it isn’t. I was robbed of the automatic National selection when Black Apalachi was injured just before the weights came out because I am faithful to my Grand National horses and the likes of Hedgehunter, Little Polveir and Amberleigh House have rewarded me for it and so I’m likely to keep State of Play on my side while noting that Tidal Bay is still in there at 40/1. Everybody will have seen how he’s been finishing shorter staying chases this season and so if he can jump round 28 fences, you’d want to be on him over the last two. But obviously Niche Market did nothing but advertise his chances last weekend.